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Episode 1171: Take Me Out With the Crowd
Date February 2, 2018 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about bullpen-cart feasibility, a listener crowdsourcing project to fill out the Effectively Wild Wiki, and the effect of starting an inning with a runner on second, then follow up on player volatility and knuckleball hits and answer listener emails about the historical significance of the Marlins’ latest firesale, the respective offensive ceilings of Didi Gregorius and Andrelton Simmons, the effect of this winter’s slow market on future extensions and high-profile free agents, the “Steroid Era” and aging patterns, and optimizing a legendary lineup. Plus a Stat Blast on low payrolls and a teaser for the sixth annual EW season preview series. Topics * Historical significance of the Marlins' firesale * Remaining offseason moves and potential roster for the Marlins * Continued wRC+ increases by Didi Gregorius and Andrelton Simmons * Reviewing payroll projections and free agent signings * Will more players sign extensions? * Impact of the steroid era on free agent signings * Optimizing your batting order Intro Eric B. & Rakim, "Move the Crowd" Outro The Jam, "In the Crowd" Banter * MLBPA and MLB negotiations on game length and a study to review the "feasibility of a bullpen cart." * A project has been started by several Effectively Wild listeners to create a wiki (that you are now reading!) as a reference for all episodes of Effectively Wild. This will create, among many other things, a searchable database of listener email questions. * Jeff's interest in Wilmer Font * Reviewing the MLB proposal to start extra innings with a runner on second base. * Episode 1167 follow-up: Listener Kevin Whitaker's research on past volatility and the willingness teams have to pay for high variance players. * Episode 1167 follow-up: How would it be possible for hitters to hit a ball that knuckles (no spin)? Email Questions * Jason: "Has there ever been this large a migration or exodus of talent as the Marlins this offseason?" * John: "Didi Gregorius and Andrelton Simmons are around the same age have both seen their wRC+ rise by about 9 points in each of the last three seasons. Which player would you give better odds to make another big rise in wRC+?" * Jeremiah: "Will the relatively icy temperature of this year's hot stove make pending free agents more likely to sign extensions?" * Josh: "Is the end of the steroid era actually a possible explanation for the lack of movement in the current market? Could what we're seeing now be a market correction by front offices who in the past expected steroid infused players to have more productive years later in their careers?" * Luke: "Say you have the following four players in their prime: Ichiro, Bonds, Pujols, and Rickey Henderson? What order do you put them in in the lineup?" Stat Blast * Jeff looks at payroll data to see trends in team payroll and future projections. * Projected opening day payroll for 2018 is currently $11 million less on average per team than in 2017. However this will rise with free agent signings. Notes * Ben and Jeff marvel at the need for a bullpen cart "feasibility study", as if golf carts are a new invention, and nobody knows if they have enough juice to make it all the way to the mound. They consider potential unintended consequences, like pitchers cooling off during the ride, or the incongruity of a cart ride with high-energy or menacing entrance music. Jeff suggests going all-in and using carts to deliver outfielders to their positions in a cart-pool. * A listener calculates that starting with a runner on second base reduces the chance of a game continuing in extra innings from about 70% to 42%, shortening the game by around 19 minutes. * Ben notes that a 13-inning game isn't fun, but it carries the threat of turning into a fascinating 18-inning marathon. * The Gulf Coast and Arizona Leagues placed a runner on second in extra innings, and those games were 16 minutes shorter than extra inning games in other leagues, confirming the reader's calculations. * Kevin concluded that past volatility is indeed predictive, and that teams pay more for players with high variability, at least in short-term contracts. His hypothesis (backed by economic theory) is that teams can reap the windfall of a player overperforming expectations, and they can bench or replace an underperformer. This explains why the effect is limited to short-term contracts: Teams are unwilling to eat a long-term contract. He notes that another hypothesis is simply that teams are too optimistic. * In a Sports Illustrated article, Torii Hunter remarked on how well Howie Kendrick can make knuckle-hit line drives. * Andrew Perpetua says that in order to knuckle-hit, the swing plane must perfectly line up with the pitch plane, which requires a launch angle of around 6 to 7 degrees. * Listener Joe has experience with knuckle-hits as a catcher and shortstop. It's noticeable only to the catcher and the fielder. To everyone else, it looks like a fielding error. * Ben's research indicated that the Marlins firesale this season (departure of 19 WAR) was the largest in MLB history. * The Marlins led MLB in outfield WAR in 2017 and now project to have the lowest outfield WAR in 2018. This has only happened one other time in MLB history (2016 Diamondbacks). * The 6th annual series preview podcast series will begin shortly. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1171: Take Me Out With the Crowd * Extra-Inning probabilities spreadsheet * The Marlins' Latest Fire Sale Is Already Record-Setting by Ben Lindbergh * Risk Preferences and Wage Determination in the Major League Baseball Labor Market by Kevin Whitaker Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes